AFL Exotics Betting Markets

Betting on AFL Exotic Markets takes skill, knowledge and the other 70% is generally luck.

AFL Exotic Markets include a variety of goal kicker, wire to wire betting, disposal, player and team bets at odds that are set much higher than the regular AFL Head to Head and Margin markets.

Listed below are the most common Exotic markets for Australian Rules Football, how to bet on them, how the odds are calculated and tips for picking a winning Exotic bet.

Here we go…

Player Disposals Markets

Player disposals markets show a list of players, where the bettor must select the player they think will accumulate the most possessions (handballs and kicks) during the game.

Player Disposal markets are usually broken into groups, with ‘Group A’ the most elite players, ‘Group B’ a group of non-elite players and so on.

Below is the usual format in which wagering sites will offer the Player Disposals market. For this example, the bettor has selected ‘Player 6’ to  have the most disposals in ‘Group A’ at the end of the game.

For this to be a winning Player Bet, Player A must accumulate more possessions than all other players in Group A.

Should multiple players have the same number of possessions at the end of the game, the dividends will be split by the number of players tied for the most possessions.

An example of a this Line Bet in a bet slip can be seen below.

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

How are the returns calculated for an AFL Most Disposals Player bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Player 6 Odds) $10.00 x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $100.00

Calculating the profit on an AFL Player Most Disposals bet –

(Estimated Returns) $100.00 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $90.00

Tip – To make an informed Player Most Disposals bet we suggest to –

• Check the possession averages for players on each team.
• Do a little bit of research on the game lineups, and try and figure out which players are likely to be tagged during the game. These players should be scratched off your list.
• If two high possession players are set to line up on each other, these are the players who are best to select, as they will be focused more on possession gathering than defense.

Player Most Goals Markets

The Player Most Goals markets require the bettor to select which player from a given group will kick the most goals during the game.

As with most disposals, the players are divided into groups, with ‘Group A’ containing the players that are most likely to kick the most goals.

Below is the general format of the Most Player Goals market. For this example, the bettor has selected ‘Player 6’ to  have the most disposals in ‘Group A’ at the end of the game.

For this example, the bettor has select Player 3 to kick the most goals during the game from Group A.

An example of a this Most Player Goals Bet in a bet slip can be seen below.

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

For a winning bet to result, Player 3 must kick the most goals of the Group A listed players. If multiple players are to score the highest number of goals, the dividends will be divided by the number of players in Group A tied for the most goals.

How are the returns calculated for an AFL Player Most Goals bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Player 3 Odds) $5.00 x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $50.00

Calculating the profit on an AFL Player Most Goals bet –

(Estimated Returns) $50.00 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $40.00

Tip – To make an informed Player Most Goals bet we suggest to –

• Follow the Coleman Medal leaders, these are the players who are leading the lead in goals kicked for the season.
• Study the matchups for both teams. Some forwards match up very well on certain defenders.
• Some players play well at certain grounds. It’s a good idea to find specific data around player performances at different grounds.
• When you’re hot, you’re hot. Follow the players who are kicking bags. Forwards are beasts who fire when confident.

Player Doubles Markets

Player double markets require the bettor to select from markets which combine two players, and two different statistics.

There are many different Double Player bets to choose from, for this example we are showing the Double Player Markets for the categories – Most Possessions / Most Goals.

There are hundreds of Double Player markets available, so we have selected just a small sample size as an example. Player A has been selected for Most Possessions, and paired with multiple players to choose for Most Goals.

In the example below, the bettor has selected Player A/Player C__$32.00

For this to result as a winning bet, ‘Player A’ must have the most possessions (kicks + handballs) and ‘Player C’ must kick the most goals during the game.

An example of a this Most Player Goals Bet in a bet slip can be seen below –

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

For a winning bet to result, Player 3 must kick the most goals of the Group A listed players. If multiple players are to score the highest number of goals, the dividends will be divided by the number of players in Group A tied for the most goals.

How are the returns calculated for an AFL Player Doubles bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Player A Odds) $32.00 x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $320.00

Calculating the profit on an AFL Player Doubles bet –

(Estimated Returns) $320.00 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $310.00

Tip – To make an informed Player Doubles bet we suggest to –

• Follow the recent form of both players, obviously…
• Take a deep breath and just do it. With markets like these, you’re always taking a risk. Do the due course and follow the stats for both players over their last five games and fire off the bet when you think you’ve found an edge.

Handicap Markets (1/4, 1/2, 3/4 time)

Handicap Markets are similar to regular margin markets, however they are broken down into quarters and halves of the game.

Odds for Line Bets are generally set between $1.91 – $1.95 depending on the bookmaker.

• When a team has a line with a (+), it shows that the team must win the quarter or half by fewer points than indicated by the line.
• When a team has a point spread line with a (-), it indicates that the team must win the quarter or half  by more points than what is indicated in the line.

An example of a this Quarter, Half Handicap Market in a bet slip can be seen below –

For this example, the bettor has selected ‘Team A’ at the Half Time Line  of (+5.5)__$1.90.

For this to result in a winning bet, Team A must either –

• A) Lead the game at half time, or
• B) Be within 5.5 points of Team B at half time.

An example this margin bet in a bet slip is shown below –

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

How are the returns calculated for a 1/4 and 1/2 time Margin bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Team A Odds) $1.90 x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $19.00

Calculating the profit on a 1/4 and 1/2 time Margin  bet –

(Estimated Returns) $19.00 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $9.00

Tip – To make an informed Player Doubles bet we suggest to –

• Check the statistics for teams through each quarter of the season. Some teams perform poorly in first halves of games, while some teams perform great in the second half, the same goes for quarters. The best value can be found with underdog teams, who have been seen to come out hot in the first quarter.

AFL Team Doubles Markets

A Team Doubles Market requires the bettor to select two combined markets as set by the bookmaker that a team must hit in order for a winning bet. Typically the Team Double Market combines the Line and Total Points markets.

For this example the bettor has selected Team B -11.5/Over 160.5 __$3.40.

For this to result as a winning bet, Team A must –

• A) Be leading by 12 points or more at the end of the game, and
• B) Must have scored 160 or more points.

An example of this Line/Total Points market in a bet slip is shown below –

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

How are the returns calculated for Line / Total Points Double bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Team B Odds) $32.00 x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $320.00

Calculating the profit on a Line / Total Points Double bet –

(Estimated Returns) $320.00 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $310.00

Tip – To make an informed Line/Total Points Doubles bet we suggest –

• If you have supreme confidence in your selection, this market is a nice one to follow, otherwise it’s one to avoid.

Pick Your Own Line Markets 

Pick Your Own Line markets are a custom variation of the general Line markets.

With this market, you will be able to select a line that you think is the best value for the game, with the odds adjusting the wider and slimmer you make the line.

Below is an example of how the Pick Your Own Line markets are set out, hoever this is only a small sample size, with odds growing ever larger as the line is lengthened.

The line will grow larger as the (-) market extends, and smaller as the (+) market extends.

For this example, the bettor has selected Team A +41.5__$1.18.

For this to result as a winning bet, Team A must win the game, or be within 41.5 points of the final margin at the end of the game.

An example this Pick Your Own Line market in a bet slip is shown below –

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

How are the returns calculated for a Pick Your Own Line bet?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Team B Odds) $1.18x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $11.80

Calculating the profit on a Pick Your Own Line bet –

(Estimated Returns) $1.18 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $1.18

Tip – To make an informed Pick Your Own Line bet we suggest –

• Check the past five matchups between the two sides, some sides perform better against others, and you may be able to find some value with an underdog.
• Generally, we tend to extend the (+) with the underdogs when it comes to Pick Your Own Line bets. It is seen as more conservative, and if you are putting it in a multibet, as we do, it’s a much safer option.
• If you are really confident of a large victory, extend the (-) line, but don’t get too greedy, modern day AFL is pretty close.

AFL Wire to Wire Betting

An AFL Wire to Wire bet is one of the ultimate tests of faith.

With Wire to Wire betting you are betting that a team will lead at every change throughout the game, including 1/4 time, half time, 3/4 time and full time.

For a team to lead at every change in a game of modern day AFL is a gamble, but hey, that’s why we love it.

An example of an AFL Wire to Wire betting market as set by a bookmaker can be seen below –

For this example the bettor has selected Team B to Lead at Every Quarter__$4.25.

For this to result as a winning bet, Team A must lead the game at 1/4 time, half time, 3/4 time and full time.

An example this Pick Your Own Line market in a bet slip is shown below –

The bettor has placed $10 as their “Stake” in the Stake field.

How are the returns calculated for a Wire to Wire bets?

The estimated returns are calculated as:

(Team B Odds) $4.25x $10 (Stake)

Estimated Returns = $42.50

Calculating the profit on an AFL Wire to Wire bet –

(Estimated Returns) $42.50 – $10.00 (Stake)

Estimated Profit = $32.50

Tip – To make an informed AFL Wire to Wire bet we suggest –

• Check the statistics for a team’s scoring in the 1st and 3rd quarters. If a team scores well in these quarters, they are generally set to perform well in both halves of the game.
• Go to your nearest pond and throw a penny in. Make a wish and close your eyes.

If you’ve got any queries or questions don’t hesitate to send us a message, we love to help our fellow punters as best we can.

Good Luck with your AFL exotics betting!