AFL Futures Markets
AFL Futures are markets that represent bets that are going to be resulted in… the future.
These include bets such as the Brownlow Medal, Coleman Medal, AFL Rising Star and Ladder position bets.
Below are explanations of the AFL Futures Markets, how they are resulted and tips for betting on AFL Futures.
AFL Grand Final Futures / Outright Markets
AFL Premiership Futures run through the entire AFL regular season and Finals, listing out the favorites to win the AFL Grand Final on a week by week basis.
The Premiership Futures Outright Markets reflect the form of the best sides in the competition, with last year’s best Finals teams generally favoured heavily in regards to current and expected form.
The Futures Markets are list out all 18 AFL teams, with their odds for the AFL Premiership.
AFL Premiership Odds
|West Coast Eagles||$21.00|
AFL Top 4 Markets
AFL Top 4 Market gives odds for teams to be in the Top 4 positions of the AFL ladder at the conclusion of the regular season.
The top four ladder system is designed to give the top four teams at the end of the regular season an easier road to the Grand Final than the second four teams in the top eight.
The top four teams need to win only two finals to reach the Grand Final, while the second four teams need to win three. The two winning teams of the top four receive a bye in the second week of the finals and then have the advantage of playing at home in the third week. The two losing teams play at home in the second week.
- The previous year’s AFL Top 4 positions is generally a good indicator of probable Top 4 positions the following year.
- Teams that have more home games during the regular season are more likely to secure a Top 4 ladder positions than teams that travel consistently throughout the season.
AFL Top 8 Markets
AFL Top 8 Market gives odds for teams to be in the Top 8 positions of the AFL ladder at the conclusion of the regular season. The AFL ladder consists of 18 teams, with the top eight teams at the end of the regular season going through to the AFL Finals.
There is generally better value in picking a Top 8 finishing side than there is picking a Top 4 market, as teams that finish around the 9-14 positions on the AFL ladder in the season previous are a good chance of making the Top 8 with improvements.
- If teams found good form late in previous season, but missed out on a Top 8 position, they may be worth considering betting on for a Top 8 position.
- The AFL these days is a pretty even competition, look for player trades, retirements and injuries to players from teams that finished in positions 6-8 on the ladder. These teams may drop out the following year.
- Sometimes if you’ve got a hunch, run with it. Think the Saints are gearing up for a big year, follow your heart (not always great advice, but it certainly keep you entertained for at least the first 12 rounds).
Coleman Medal Markets
The Coleman Medal is awarded to the player that kicks the most goals during an AFL season, excluding Finals.
Coleman Medal betting markets generally adjust following each game within an AFL Round.
ie. If Player A kicks 12 goals during a game on a Friday night, his odds for the Coleman Medal will drop, and odds for other players in the Coleman Medal market will increase.
Sometimes betting agencies will “Pay Out” on the Coleman Medal Market if they believe the leader will not be caught throughout the remaining matches of the season.
- Follow the leaders from the previous seasons, and take into account their injuries, current team list and factors that may cause them to kick more/less goals.
- View statistics regarding who had the most shots on goal during the previous season. Sometimes improved goal kicking over the preseason will increase goals kicked by players the following year. If a player finishes 2nd or 3rd in the Coleman medal the previous year/s and they have finished the season with more shots on goal than the winner, there may be good value.
Coleman Medal Odds
|Josh Kennedy (WCE)||$7.00|
Brownlow Medal Markets
The Brownlow Medal is awarded to the player judged as the best in the competition during the regular season (by the umpires).
Betting on the Brownlow is generally something that is not done until the first few rounds of the season have finished and punters are able to get a gauge on who is in form, and who is not.
The markets for the Brownlow list out around 150 AFL players, with the favourites at odds around $1.90 – $10.00 and the long shots at around $5001 at the very and of the scale.
- Wait until at least Rounds 7-9 to make an informed decision of the best players to bet on for the Brownlow.
- If you are to take a bet during the first 1-3 Rounds, bet light, and bet on a few players at decent odds of around $10-$50 for some value.
- Follow the Brownlow form of papers such the Herald Sun and The Age in the day’s leading into the Brownlow Medal, they will list out how each favourite performed in each Round of the season, and their expected vote count for each game.
Brownlow Medal Odds
|Josh P. Kennedy||$41.00|
AFL Rising Star Markets
The AFL Rising Star is awarded to the best young player each year in the AFL.
For a player to be eligible for the award, they must 21 years or younger on January 1st of the award year and have played 10 or fewer senior AFL games prior to the beginning of the season.
Betting on the AFL Rising Star is a difficult market to bet on, as none of the players listed have either no senior AFL experience, or very little.
- If a player is nominated for the award and have played a handful of AFL games, you may be able to get a better assessment of their potential than those players who are yet to debut.
- Look at the numbers that each player were drafted in the AFL draft, with those drafted at positions 1-5 much more likely to be elite AFL footballers.
- Players that are drafted to struggling teams are much more likely to be given quality ground time and will be kept on the ground when games are close for development purposes. Find players drafted positions 1-5 to poor teams, and you have a winning combination.
AFL Rising Star Odds
|Ryan Burton (Haw)||$1.70|
|Sam Powell-Pepper (Port)||$3.00|
|Andrew McGrath (Ess)||$3.50|
|Charlie Curnow (Carl)||$17.00|
|Alex Witherden (Bris)||$34.00|
|Caleb Marchbank (Carl)||$51.00|
|Ben Ainsworth (GC)||$67.00|
|Brandon Parfitt (Geel)||$67.00|
|Eric Hipwood (Bris)||$67.00|
|Tom Phillips (Coll)||$67.00|
|David Cuningham (Carl)||$101.00|